Post-Processed Decadal Predictions (PPDP)
PPDP will be built on the existing post-processing methodologies and data products based on climate projections. The CLARA project will allow to extend this service to decadal projections.
We engaged with Acclimatise, a leading climate change adaptation consulting company, and SMHI, a research institution specialized in Hydrology, to assess the use and the value. The direct engagement allowed discussing the useful skill level for decision-making.
The PPDP service will provide bias-adjusted and downscaled decadal forecast based on ERA5 reanalysis data as a general service. Other observational data sets can be used in an on-demand service for user specific custom applications.
The business model for sustainability is a mix of products and on-demand services based on value.
There are two types of users benefits. First, the ability to have a forward-looking strategy at the decadal scale (“forecast value”) for decision-making. This has the greatest value. Second, an easy access to decadal forecast for research purposes independently of forecast skill. This has value as an outsourcing service (reduce cost, faster availability).
PPDP is a value transversal service and holds great potential for many sectors. However, because forecast skill is not yet sufficient for decision-making, the use of decadal forecast on the short term is limited to scientific and research impact studies. Soon, the Copernicus Climate Change Service will make multi-model decadal projections available allowing sufficient skill for the development of the PPDP service as a downstream transversal service.
Users are willing to pay for forecast skill that allows decision-making that can be different according to sectors. Research users are willing to pay for custom processing of decadal forecast.
Developers team (The clime data factory)
Loukos, T. Noël, F. Cochard