Economic assessment of flood risk (FLOOD-MAGE)
FLOODMAGE provides flood hazard and risk information based on local data, downscaled climate projections and advanced modelling approaches.
The advancements in the service development have been regularly presented during public conferences. A website has been deployed to provide more updates on the service and display results from the pilot demonstrator, together with a public page on Facebook which portray the basic information on the service to a wider public.
FLOODMAGE is a DRR climate service aimed to estimate the potential economic losses triggered by flood events of different kinds (pluvial, fluvial and coastal) in relation to medium to long term climate conditions. The service adapts to different spatial scales and builds upon seasonal meteo-climatic downscaling, high resolution exposure mapping, hydrodynamic and hydrostatic hazard modelling, and multi-variable risk assessment. FM provides insights on the economic and financial impacts linked to extreme event scenarios and draws a comprehensive outlook on how such impacts may change due to increased climate variability.
FM hazard downscaling looks for the most detailed and updated data available for the area of application. The service combines data about meteorological forcing (precipitation intensity), land morphology (high-resolution terrain model), water network (both natural and artificial features such as drainage networks and retention areas), land cover (buildings and areas categories) and the value of exposed assets. In addition, hydro-meteorological records (precipitation, discharge volumes) are used to calibrate the flood hazard model and to infer important statistics regarding past flood events, such as flood return periods. Existing records or catalogues of past disaster events in the investigated area are accounted in the calibration and validation of the hazard model, and to support the estimation of risk.
COMPONENTS OF THE SERVICE
FLOODMAGE provides a comprehensive outlook of financial economic losses due to flood disasters in relation to extreme events probability. The service helps to answer common requirements of risk management, such as: where the most critically prone areas and infrastructures are located? What is the current level of flood exposure and risk in the area, and how will it change in the near future due to climate change? The service produces an estimate of expected losses in relation to scenarios of hazard probability in the form of hazard and risk maps, data sheets and short reports. The value of FM has been assessed on the pilot case study of Rimini, addressing both pluvial floods and coastal inundation hazard and measuring the ability to anticipate extreme events by downscaling medium-term forecasts. It also evaluates the implementation of hazard mitigation measures to reduce the risk.
The service is oriented to a variety of users, including the public administration, river basin authorities, land reclamation boards, asset managers, and insurers.
The market strategy reflects an ongoing effort to prove the business case to a range of potential clients in different segments. By using a case-study approach, FM will improve technically and business-wise. On the technical side, the team will lower the costs by automatizing processes through the empowerment of hazard modelling tools and stochastic simulations. Business-wise, the service will prove the economic and non-monetary benefits through a co-generation approach in selected case studies. The price of each ad-hoc product is value-driven.By working with a B2B model, FM could turn into an annual subscription-based service and secure a continuous revenue stream.
M. Amadio (Service development and Risk assessment), A.
Essenfelder (Hazard modelling), J. Mysiak, (Supervisor)